Climate Change Landscape of Nepal in the Last 10 Years: A Global Comparison With Some Case Studies

Climate Change Landscape of Nepal in the Last 10 Years: A Global Comparison With Some Case Studies

-By Mahesh Khadka, FOA, AFU (maheshkhadka98095@gmail.com)

Abstract

The climate change landscape in Nepal over the past decade reveals a distinct vulnerability due to its diverse ecological zones and mountainous geography. Nepal has experienced a significant temperature rise of approximately 0.6°C over the past 40 years, which is more pronounced in the Himalayas. This warming trend has led to increased glacial melt, threatening water security for billions in South Asia. The country has also seen erratic weather patterns, with unpredictable monsoon rains causing both floods and droughts, negatively impacting agriculture and food security, especially in the Terai region.

Glacial retreats have raised the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), while biodiversity and public health are increasingly affected. For example, species like the Himalayan snow leopard are losing their habitats, and diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are spreading in lower regions. In 2016, a GLOF event caused significant destruction downstream, highlighting the risks posed by expanding glacial lakes.

Nepal's responses include adaptation policies such as the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and Local Adaptation Plans of Action (LAPAs), which focus on grassroots climate resilience. Globally, Nepal's warming exceeds the global average, and while its emissions are minimal, the country has pledged to reach net zero by 2050. Nevertheless, its primary focus remains on adaptation, with initiatives to improve agricultural resilience, mitigate GLOFs, and expand hydropower generation. These efforts highlight Nepal's ongoing struggle to balance economic development with climate adaptation

 

1    1.Introduction

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the sun’s activity or large volcanic eruptions. However, since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas(Nations, 2020). Climate change is a global phenomenon, but its effects are experienced differently in various regions based on geographic, economic, and socio-political contexts. Nepal, a landlocked country nestled in the Himalayas, faces unique challenges and vulnerabilities associated with climate change(Karki, 2024). Over the past decade, climate change has exacerbated issues such as glacial melt, erratic weather patterns, floods, landslides, and the displacement of communities dependent on agriculture and tourism(Thapa et al., 2021). This article reviews the landscape of climate change in Nepal over the last 10 years, comparing its impact, responses, and adaptations to global trends.

2. Overview of Climate Change in Nepal

Nepal is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its geography. The country spans diverse ecological zones, from the lowland Terai to the towering peaks of the Himalayas, making it susceptible to a range of climate-related risks. The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has drawn global attention as it feeds some of Asia’s largest rivers, impacting water security for billions of people downstream.

2.1 Key Climatic Trends in Nepal

The past decade has seen significant shifts in Nepal's climate:

• Temperature Rise: The average temperature in Nepal has increased by about 0.6°C over the last 40 years, with the rate of warming in the Himalayas being much higher than in the Terai region(Dhital et al., 2023).
• Precipitation Changes: Monsoon rains have become more unpredictable, with instances of both extreme droughts and heavy rainfall causing floods and landslides.
• Glacier Melting: Nepal’s glaciers have been retreating at an alarming rate, with an annual ice mass loss of approximately 0.2 to 0.5 meters water equivalent(Khadka et al., 2023).

 

3. Comparison of Nepal’s Climate Trends with Global Climate Change

Globally, climate change has manifested in rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and an increase in extreme weather events. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the last decade (2011-2020) was the warmest on record, with global temperatures around 1.09°C higher than pre-industrial levels. The global average temperature rise is about 0.2°C per decade since 1880 while Nepal’s temperature rise has been more pronounced (i.e. 0.6°C), especially in the Himalayas, where it exceeds the global average. Globally, there is a trend towards both wetter and drier conditions depending on the region. Nepal, being in the South Asian monsoon zone, has seen significant variability in rainfall patterns, with increased frequency of droughts during non-monsoon seasons and intense rains during the monsoon. Worldwide, glaciers have lost an estimated 9,000 gigatons of ice between 1961 and 2016 (Karki, 2024) and the Himalayas, known as the "Third Pole," are experiencing ice loss at a 3 times  faster rate than global average, threatening water supplies in South Asia(adb.org, 2024).

4. Impacts of Climate Change in Nepal

4.1 Agriculture and Food Security

Agriculture in Nepal, which employs around 60% of the population, is highly dependent on monsoon rains. Unpredictable weather patterns have led to crop failures, reduced yields, and increased food insecurity. For example, the drought in 2015 caused severe crop losses, while floods in 2017 damaged 80,000 hectares of farmland (ADB, 2019).

4.2 Water Resources

Nepal's rivers, fed by Himalayan glaciers, are critical for hydropower, irrigation, and drinking water. However, the retreat of glaciers threatens long-term water availability. According to a World Bank report, about 10% of Nepal's hydropower potential is at risk due to reduced water flow from glaciers.

4.3 Biodiversity

Nepal is home to a rich diversity of flora and fauna, much of which is threatened by climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are leading to shifts in species habitats, with many alpine species moving to higher altitudes. The Himalayan snow leopard, for instance, faces habitat loss due to shrinking snow cover(Joshi, 2023).

4.4 Human Health

Climate change has direct and indirect effects on public health in Nepal. Increasing temperatures and erratic rainfall have contributed to the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, especially in the lower Terai regions. Additionally, heatwaves and flash floods have increased the risk of fatalities and injuries.

4.5 Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

Nepal has over 3,000 glacial lakes, and some of them are expanding due to glacial melting(Riaz et al., 2014). The risk of GLOFs—sudden releases of water from glacial lakes—has increased over the past decade. The 2016 Dig Tsho GLOF event caused massive destruction of property and infrastructure downstream .

5. Global Climate Policies and Nepal’s Adaptation Efforts

Nepal is a signatory to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C. However, being a developing country with low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Nepal focuses more on adaptation than mitigation .In response to the growing threat of climate change, Nepal has implemented several key policies. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) Launched in 2010, identifies key vulnerabilities and outlines priority adaptation measures . Climate Change Policy 2019, builds on previous efforts by integrating climate change into all sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and health . Local Adaptation Plans of Action (LAPAs) first introduced in 2011, have been a critical tool for translating national-level climate policies into action at the grassroots level, integrating climate change considerations into local development planning processes. The goal is to empower local governments and communities to identify vulnerabilities, prioritize adaptation needs, and implement projects that address specific climate risks. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) commitments outline Nepal’s strategy to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while also building resilience to climate impacts. The National Climate Change Policy 2019, builds on earlier policies such as the Climate Change Policy of 2011 and NAPA but goes further by integrating climate change into all major sectors of development, including agriculture, infrastructure, health, and education. National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process in 2015 to develop a medium- and long-term adaptation strategy, focuses on enhancing Nepal’s resilience to climate change impacts across various sectors, such as agriculture, water resources, forests, health, and infrastructure.

6. Comparison with Global Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts

Globally, countries have adopted a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies, depending on their emission levels and vulnerability to climate impacts. Developed countries, which contribute the most to global emissions, focus on mitigation through reducing GHG emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources (eea.europa, 2024).

6.1 Mitigation Strategies

• Global Context: Major emitters like the United States, China, and the European Union have committed to significant reductions in carbon emissions. For example, the EU aims to cut emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels(European comission, 2024) .
• Nepal’s Context: Nepal’s emissions are minimal compared to global figures (less than 0.1% of global emissions), and thus the country focuses more on adaptation than mitigation. However, Nepal has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050(Government of Nepal [GoN], 2020).

6.2 Adaptation Efforts

Globally, adaptation efforts include infrastructure resilience, disaster risk reduction, and the development of early warning systems. In Nepal, the focus has been on improving the resilience of communities through programs like the Local Adaptation Plans of Action (LAPAs), which help local governments incorporate climate risks into their development planning.

7. Case studies

7.1. Case Study: Climate-Induced Migration in Nepal

Nepal Context:

The Khumbu region, home to Mount Everest, has seen a sharp rise in migration due to climate-induced pressures on livelihoods, especially in agriculture and tourism. The Sherpa communities, traditionally reliant on subsistence farming and tourism-related activities, are being forced to leave their homes as erratic weather and glacial melt reduce agricultural productivity and disrupt tourism flows. This migration, both internal and to neighboring countries like India, is exacerbating the loss of indigenous knowledge and cultural practices.

In the Mustang District, farmers have had to deal with an increasing number of droughts, reducing their ability to grow staple crops such as barley and buckwheat. As climate conditions worsen, families are abandoning their lands and moving to urban centers such as Kathmandu or emigrating abroad for better job opportunities. The impacts of this climate migration are twofold: agricultural land is abandoned, leading to decreased national food security, and urban areas become overburdened, struggling to accommodate the growing population.

Global Context: Climate-Induced Migration in Bangladesh

Similarly, in Bangladesh, millions of people living in low-lying coastal regions are being displaced due to rising sea levels, salinization of farmland, and increased storm surges(Gören, 2022). Migration in Bangladesh is largely driven by environmental degradation in areas such as the Sundarbans, a critical mangrove forest. By 2050, it is estimated that one in every seven people in Bangladesh will be displaced by climate change. This has led to significant internal migration to Dhaka, one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world, where slums are swelling and infrastructure is stretched thin.

7.2 Case Study: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Nepal

Nepal Context: Imja Lake GLOF Risk Management

Imja Lake, located near Mount Everest in Nepal’s Sagarmatha National Park, is one of the fastest-growing glacial lakes in the Himalayas. Over the last few decades, the lake has expanded significantly due to rapid glacial melt, posing a severe risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). In response to this growing threat, the Nepalese government, in partnership with international organizations such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), undertook a major risk mitigation project from 2013 to 2016. The project involved lowering the lake’s water level by 3.4 meters using a controlled drainage system. This preventive measure significantly reduced the risk of a catastrophic flood, which could have devastated downstream communities and infrastructure.

Global Context: GLOFs in the Andes, Peru

In the Andes, Peru faces a similar threat with its rapidly growing glacial lakes. The Palcacocha Lake, located near the city of Huaraz, is one of the highest-risk glacial lakes in the region. Like Nepal, Peru has seen accelerated glacial retreat due to rising temperatures, increasing the volume of water in glacial lakes and heightening the risk of GLOFs. In 1941, a GLOF from Palcacocha Lake killed an estimated 5,000 people in Huaraz. Since then, the Peruvian government has implemented monitoring systems and infrastructure projects, including drainage and dam systems, to reduce the risk of future GLOFs.

7.3 Case Study: Agriculture and Climate Change in Nepal

Nepal Context: Climate-Resilient Agricultural Practices in the Terai Region

Nepal's Terai region, often referred to as the “granary” of the country, has been significantly affected by changing monsoon patterns, leading to both flooding and droughts that impact agricultural production. To combat these challenges, local communities, with the support of the government and NGOs, have adopted climate-resilient farming techniques such as crop diversification, the use of drought-resistant seeds, and improved water management practices, including rainwater harvesting. Farmers have also started practicing agroforestry, integrating trees into their farming systems to improve soil quality and water retention, as well as to provide a buffer against extreme weather events.

For example, the introduction of climate-smart varieties of rice, which are more resistant to drought and floods, has helped farmers maintain production despite erratic weather patterns. Additionally, the promotion of System of Rice Intensification (SRI), a low-water, high-yield method, has been implemented across many districts, leading to improved yields and better food security.

Global Context: Climate-Resilient Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, climate change poses a similar threat to agriculture, particularly in countries like Kenya and Ethiopia, where unpredictable rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts have devastated crop yields and food security. To adapt, farmers have been adopting climate-resilient practices such as conservation agriculture, which involves minimal tilling, crop rotation, and mulching to improve soil health and reduce water usage. In Kenya, the promotion of drought-resistant maize varieties has been crucial in helping farmers cope with increasingly frequent droughts.

7.4 Case Study: Renewable Energy Development in Nepal

Nepal Context: Hydropower Expansion

Nepal's unique geography offers tremendous potential for hydropower generation, with an estimated capacity of 83,000 MW, of which about 42,000 MW is considered economically feasible. However, only around 1,000 MW has been developed to date. Climate change, particularly the changing patterns of water flow from melting glaciers and erratic monsoon rains, poses both opportunities and challenges for hydropower development. In recent years, Nepal has accelerated its efforts to develop small and large hydropower projects to meet domestic energy needs and reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.

One notable example is the Upper Tamakoshi Hydroelectric Project, which, when completed, will be the largest hydropower project in Nepal, adding 456 MW to the national grid. This project is seen as a cornerstone of Nepal’s strategy to achieve energy independence and contribute to its long-term climate mitigation goals by reducing the reliance on fossil fuel imports.

Global Context: Renewable Energy in Iceland

Iceland serves as a global leader in renewable energy development, with nearly 100% of its electricity coming from renewable sources, primarily hydropower and geothermal energy. Iceland’s geography, like Nepal’s, provides abundant resources for hydropower, which powers its industries and homes. However, unlike Nepal, Iceland has successfully harnessed nearly all of its available hydropower potential, becoming a model for sustainable energy development.

 

7.5 Case Study: Community-Based Forest Management in Nepal

Nepal Context: The Role of Forest User Groups

Nepal is renowned for its pioneering efforts in community-based forest management, particularly through the establishment of Community Forest User Groups (CFUGs). Since the late 1990s, these groups have played a vital role in conserving forests, enhancing biodiversity, and combating land degradation, while also providing economic benefits to local communities. In recent years, CFUGs have become central to climate change adaptation efforts in Nepal. By managing forests sustainably, communities have improved their resilience to climate-related disasters such as landslides and floods, which are exacerbated by deforestation and soil erosion.

In the hill regions of Nepal, for example, CFUGs have implemented afforestation and reforestation projects aimed at stabilizing slopes, preventing soil erosion, and enhancing water retention in the soil. These projects have not only restored degraded land but also created carbon sinks, contributing to global mitigation efforts. Furthermore, many CFUGs are integrating climate-smart agricultural practices, such as agroforestry, into their management plans, enhancing both food security and biodiversity in the face of a changing climate.

Global Context: Community Forest Management in Mexico

In Mexico, similar community-based forest management initiatives have been successful in protecting biodiversity and mitigating the effects of climate change. Indigenous and local communities in Oaxaca, for instance, manage vast tracts of forest land under collective ownership, utilizing sustainable timber harvesting, ecotourism, and conservation agriculture as part of their climate adaptation strategies. These forests act as critical carbon sinks and buffer local communities against the impacts of extreme weather events such as hurricanes and droughts.

7.6 Case Study: Climate-Smart Villages (CSV) in Nepal

Nepal Context: The Rupa Lake Watershed CSV Project
The Climate-Smart Village (CSV) initiative, spearheaded by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), has gained momentum in Nepal as a localized approach to building climate resilience. One notable example is the Rupa Lake Watershed CSV in the mid-hill region of Nepal. In this region, the CSV project has worked with local farmers to introduce climate-smart agricultural technologies and practices such as system of rice intensification (SRI), drought-tolerant crop varieties, and efficient water management systems.

The CSV approach in Rupa Lake also emphasizes community-led planning for climate adaptation. Local stakeholders actively participate in developing adaptation strategies that are tailored to their specific context, focusing on improving food security, enhancing livelihoods, and protecting ecosystems. This project has successfully increased crop yields, improved water availability through rainwater harvesting, and strengthened the local capacity to cope with climate risks such as erratic rainfall and droughts.

Global Context: Climate-Smart Villages in Kenya
In Kenya, the CSV model has also been adopted to enhance resilience in agricultural communities facing droughts, erratic rainfall, and land degradation. In Western Kenya, CSVs have implemented similar practices to those in Nepal, including conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and water harvesting techniques. In these villages, farmers have seen increased productivity despite changing weather patterns, and they have reduced their vulnerability to climate shocks.

7.7 Case Study: Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems in Nepal

Nepal Context: The Kathmandu Valley Early Warning System
Nepal has made significant strides in disaster risk reduction (DRR) in response to the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. One of the most important advancements in the last decade has been the development of early warning systems (EWS) for floods, landslides, and earthquakes. In the Kathmandu Valley, where urbanization has increased vulnerability to floods and landslides, the government, in collaboration with international agencies like the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), has implemented a sophisticated EWS.

The EWS in the Kathmandu Valley monitors weather patterns and river flow in real-time, providing early warnings of impending floods and landslides. In 2017, the system proved effective when warnings issued ahead of the monsoon floods allowed local authorities to evacuate residents from flood-prone areas, reducing fatalities and property damage.

Global Context: Early Warning Systems in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has also invested heavily in EWS, particularly for cyclones and floods. The Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) in Bangladesh, which operates in conjunction with meteorological monitoring, has been credited with saving thousands of lives in recent cyclone events. The early warning system alerts communities in coastal areas, allowing for timely evacuations and preparation.

7.8 Case Study: Climate Change Impacts on Nepal’s Tourism Industry

Nepal Context: The Effect on Trekking Routes and Mountaineering
Tourism, particularly trekking and mountaineering, is a cornerstone of Nepal’s economy, contributing around 7.9% of the country's GDP and providing employment for hundreds of thousands of people. However, climate change is increasingly threatening this vital industry. The rapid melting of glaciers and unpredictable weather patterns have altered several trekking routes in the Himalayas, making them less accessible and more dangerous. For instance, the Annapurna Circuit, one of the world’s most famous trekking routes, has seen an increase in landslides and rockfalls due to heavy rains and unstable slopes, discouraging tourists from visiting.Mountaineering, including expeditions to Mount Everest, is also affected by glacial retreat, changing snow patterns, and increased risk of avalanches. In 2014, an avalanche in the Khumbu Icefall, triggered by the melting of glaciers, killed 16 Sherpa guides on Everest, leading to a temporary closure of climbing routes. Such events highlight the growing risks for both climbers and local communities dependent on tourism for their livelihoods.

Global Context: Climate Change and Alpine Tourism in Europe
The European Alps, another iconic region for mountain tourism, face similar challenges due to climate change. Ski resorts in countries like Switzerland and Austria are experiencing shorter seasons due to declining snowfall and rising temperatures. In response, some resorts are turning to artificial snowmaking, which requires substantial energy and water, further complicating climate adaptation efforts. Additionally, glaciers in the Alps, which are popular for summer hiking and glacier tourism, are retreating at an alarming rate, shrinking the attractions that draw

8. CONCLUSION

Nepal's unique location in the Himalayas makes it highly vulnerable to climate change, with impacts such as glacial melting, erratic weather, floods, and landslides affecting key sectors like agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, and public health. Agriculture and food security face major risks from unpredictable monsoons, while glacial retreat threatens water security and hydropower generation. Although Nepal's climate mirrors global warming trends, its rate of warming in the Himalayas is faster than the global average. The country has implemented adaptation strategies, including NAPA, LAPAs, and climate-smart villages, focusing more on adaptation than mitigation due to its minimal greenhouse gas emissions. Efforts in renewable energy, disaster risk reduction, and forest management showcase progress, yet climate change remains a significant threat to its economy and ecosystems. To strengthen its climate resilience, Nepal needs continued domestic and international support, particularly in agriculture, tourism, and water management.

 

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